P.S. You Should Know... | Issue #261

To invest money in a business during its infancy means taking a fair amount of risk — there’s a good chance you’ll never see that money again. Often early-stage investors will talk about developing conviction. It’s (almost) a prerequisite to really believe in the company and the team running it. Investors will broadcast their conviction as if it were a merit badge, even celebrating the rapidity of their arrival at said conviction. They’ll use their conviction to make bold predictions about the future.

Meanwhile those same investors often talk of humility. There’s a brutal probabilistic reality here. We’re bound to be wrong at least some (but maybe most) of the time. How do we know that yet continue developing conviction in the next idea?

I have no clue! There seems to be a cognitive dissonance that allows us to suspend humility, develop conviction, and make bold predictions of the future. I’m struggling to understand how conviction and humility can coexist at the same time. Any ideas?

How do we engineer the weather? This is a short video full of fun facts and interesting footage. At least 52 countries have some sort of weather modification program! | learn more

What is a watershed? I looked up the meaning of ‘watershed moment’ and instead ended up learning all about watersheds. They can range in size from small to thousands of square miles. | learn more

Indian immigrants in America are quite successful. “Indian-American households have the single highest income level of any group in the country — more than twice as high as the general US population.” | learn more

On fast markups in ventureland. “When I started in VC, markups were useful validation that a new fund knew what it was doing. But there was relatively less fixation on performance numbers early in a fund’s life. This seems to have changed. Why?” | learn more

Why is it so hard to buy things that work well? On build vs buy but way broader in scope. “When it comes to buying products and services, at a personal level, most people I know who’ve checked the work of people they’ve hired for things like home renovation or accounting have found grievous errors in the work. Although it’s possible to find people who don’t do shoddy work, it’s generally difficult for someone who isn’t an expert in the field to determine if someone is going to do shoddy work in the field.” | learn more

A skeptical analyst’s take on the “instant delivery” market. It’s always a pleasure to read the snarky voice of Petition, the bankruptcy newsletter. This piece is rare in that they’re chronicling the industry during its buildup. In Manhattan today there are a cohort of incredibly well-financed companies delivering products in ~20 minutes. “Gopuff, Getir, Gorillas, Jokr, Fridge No More & Buyk Duke it Out.” | learn more

Reading nutrition facts labels like a pro. Dietitian tips and tricks from the spectacular nutrition team at NutriSense. | learn more

Getting closer to lab grown meat. A digestible overview video of the market and technology. Costs have come down considerably since the first $330k burger. I’d love a lab-grown option when it’s cost competitive. | learn more

Why we stopped making Einsteins. “I think the most depressing fact about humanity is that during the 2000s most of the world was handed essentially free access to the entirety of knowledge and that didn’t trigger a golden age.” The article makes the case for aristocratic-style 1:1 tutoring being the x-factor that brings out the genius in pupils. This is specifically not the type of tutoring aimed at improving SAT scores. | learn more

The current thing. “It is very counter-intuitive to see how “bad” ideas are in fact extremely valuable: not only do they highlight why the good ideas are better, but they also sometimes show that the “good” ideas are in fact wrong. Arguing that the earth was not the center of the universe was once a “bad” idea; it was also correct.” | learn more

Planet of the billion dollar Bored Apes. The company behind the Bored Ape Yacht Club NFTs just raised $450 million at a $4 billion valuation and this skeptic makes it seem not super crazy. This finally put me over the edge of paying for the Every newsletter bundle. | learn more

Navigating the Urbit. Messari profiles Urbit, “… a private, digital homestead for all-around Web3 usage; its peer-to-peer OS offers cloud and community-based services. It’s built from the ground up and runs on almost any phone, tablet, laptop—or anything with Unix and an internet connection.” | learn more

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